California's top-two primary is letting insiders pick your Governor before you get a vote

Summary

• Democratic Party leaders are pressuring candidates to drop out to avoid vote-splitting that could send only Republicans to the November election

• The pressure campaign has sparked accusations of racism, as most candidates being asked to exit are people of color while the top three polling Democrats are white

• Letting party insiders narrow the field returns California to "smoke-filled room" politics that primaries were designed to eliminate

• The solution: Top-5 primary with ranked choice voting in November gives voters real choices while ensuring a majority-supported winner

California Democratic Party leaders are trying to solve a math problem by taking choices away from voters. And the math problem is real. California's Top-2 primary sends only the top two candidates from the June open primary to the November general election. As of March 5, polls showed two conservative Republicans leading the field.

The Problem

Many prominent candidates are running for governor and splitting the vote: no one has more than 14%. What is likely to happen is that party insiders and supporters, such as the unions, will pressure candidates to drop out. That's not a primary. That's a return to the smoke-filled rooms that primaries were invented to replace. Voters deserve better.

The party couldn't muster enough votes for any candidate to give them an endorsement at the Democratic convention, and the chair of the California Democratic party penned an open letter urging candidates who are less viable to drop out. The backlash was swift, and it cut deep.

The Solution: Top 5 with a ranked choice runoff in November

There is a tested fix: send more candidates to the general election. We could send the top 5 candidates to the general election, instead of just two. To avoid needing a third election for a runoff (if no one has a majority of the votes) the general election can use an instant runoff with ranked ballots (Ranked Choice Voting), as is done in several California cities (San Francisco, Eureka, Redondo Beach, Oakland, Berkeley, Albany, San Leandro). An instant runoff with ranked choice voting would eliminate the vote splitting, ensuring the November winner reflects voter preferences.

Attempts to thin the herd

At the California Democratic Party convention in San Francisco Feb. 20-22, the 3,200 delegates couldn't agree on a gubernatorial candidate to endorse.

On March 3, California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hick published an open letter to the Democratic candidates urging them to drop out of the race if they "do not have a viable path to make it to the General Election." In other words, if you're not one of the leaders in the polls, drop out.

This letter did not go over well with the candidates. Betty Yee issued a statement saying that "California voters have had enough" of "insider political theater" and "of the drama, the pollsters and the powerful elites." Tony Thurmond said he would not drop out, saying party leaders were "essentially telling every candidate of color in the race for governor to drop out."

Those aren't just campaign talking points. They're a diagnosis of what's broken. Most of the candidates facing pressure to step aside are people of color. The three polling highest among Democrats are all white (Eric Swalwell, Tom Steyer, and Katie Porter). A primary system that produces that outcome isn't open. It's exclusive.

Statewide race context

In a state where voters registered as Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one, losing the Governor's race to vote-splitting arithmetic would exclude the majority from meaningful participation. California Democrats enjoy an advantage in registered voters of 45% to 25% for Republicans (30% are "no party preference" or other parties).

History of California Top Two Primary

California ran closed, partisan primaries for over a century. Only party loyalists voted in them. The winners arrived in Sacramento polarized by design.

California voters passed the top-two open primary system in 2010. The goal was right: push candidates toward coalitions, not just their base. And it has made progress. Yet when the system is over-run with candidates, it can have the opposite effect: it produces a fractured majority and two unrepresentative finalists.

Between 2012 and 2024, 15.8% of races in districts and statewide had the top two candidates from the same party. This deprives the voters in the general election, which generally has twice the turnout as the primary, from having a real choice.

California's top-two primary is billed as an open election where the two leading vote-getters advance to a high-turnout November general election. In practice, it's the opposite: a low-turnout general election in June, followed by a higher-turnout runoff in November. The low-turnout primary most often determines who will win.

Top 5 and Ranked Choice Voting are tested and effective

Alaska sends the four highest finishers in its nonpartisan primary on to the general election, all but ensuring that the general includes candidates from both parties and even independents or third-party hopefuls. Then, Alaska uses ranked choice voting in the general election to elect a majority winner. Four choices work for Alaska. California, with ten times the population and far greater political diversity, should offer five.

The Alaska model has proven itself in a state with a real independent streak: Back in 2022, it produced an independent U.S. senator, a conservative governor and a Democratic congresswoman.

Additional Benefits of Top Five and Ranked Choice Voting

Sending the top 5 to the general election would have other benefits. By providing five candidates to the general election and running the general election with the instant runoff feature of ranked choice voting, vote-splitting in the general election no longer causes a candidate to lose. There can still be vote-splitting in the primary, but with five candidates advancing, the odds of a general election with no Democrat or no Republican are infinitesimal.

Top 5 eliminates having low-turnout primaries determine a single viable choice. Not only statewide, but also in a majority-Democrat district or a majority-Republican district, the majority of voters in the general election will no longer just have one choice from their party.

Top 5 gives third parties and independents a chance. For third-party candidates and independent candidates, not only do they have a pathway to the general election, the reluctance of voters to vote for them because of the spoiler effect is eliminated with Ranked Choice Voting. Research also shows RCV encourages more women and candidates of color to run.

Conclusion

Pressuring candidates out of a primary isn't leadership. It's gatekeeping. It's basically a return to selecting candidates in smoke-filled rooms, which primaries were designed to reform. No voter in a state of 40 million people should have their choices narrowed by a party letter or a union phone call. Going from two finalists up to five is a real and proven solution. It will make our elections more legitimate and give more Californians a genuine voice.