California's top-two primary cut nearly half of voters' picks for Governor before November
Updated: Oct 5
Summary
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California Democratic Party leaders spent the spring trying to solve a math problem by taking choices away from voters. And the math problem was real. California's Top-2 primary sends only the top two candidates from the June open primary to the November general election. As of March 5, polls showed two conservative Republicans leading the field. On June 2, the math resolved itself. Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advanced. Tom Steyer, with 22.8% of the vote, did not.
The Problem
This spring, many prominent candidates were running for governor and splitting the vote: no one had more than 14%. The predictable response followed: party insiders and supporters, such as the unions, pressured candidates to drop out. That's not a primary. That's a return to the smoke-filled rooms that primaries were invented to replace. Voters deserve better.
The party couldn't muster enough votes for any candidate to give them an endorsement at the Democratic convention, and the chair of the California Democratic party penned an open letter urging candidates who are less viable to drop out. The backlash was swift, and it cut deep.
What happened on June 2
Becerra finished first with 28.0% and Hilton second with 24.6%. Steyer missed November by about 167,000 votes out of more than 9 million cast. Chad Bianco took 10.2%, Katie Porter 4.4%, and Matt Mahan 3.5%.
Add it up and 47% of primary voters backed someone who won't be on the November ballot. Under a Top 5 system, November would have included Becerra, Hilton, Steyer, Bianco, and Porter: the first choices of 90% of voters.
The Solution: Top 5 with a ranked choice runoff in November
There is a tested fix: send more candidates to the general election. We could send the top 5 candidates to the general election, instead of just two. To avoid needing a third election for a runoff (if no one has a majority of the votes) the general election can use an instant runoff with ranked ballots (Ranked Choice Voting), as is done in several California cities (San Francisco, Eureka, Redondo Beach, Oakland, Berkeley, Albany, San Leandro). An instant runoff with ranked choice voting would eliminate the vote splitting, ensuring the November winner reflects voter preferences.
Attempts to thin the herd
At the California Democratic Party convention in San Francisco Feb. 20-22, the 3,200 delegates couldn't agree on a gubernatorial candidate to endorse.
On March 3, California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks published an open letter to the Democratic candidates urging them to drop out of the race if they "do not have a viable path to make it to the General Election." In other words, if you're not one of the leaders in the polls, drop out.
This letter did not go over well with the candidates. Betty Yee issued a statement saying that "California voters have had enough" of "insider political theater" and "of the drama, the pollsters and the powerful elites." Tony Thurmond said he would not drop out, saying party leaders were "essentially telling every candidate of color in the race for governor to drop out."
Then the field narrowed in a way no one planned. On April 12, Eric Swalwell, who had been leading the Democrats in the polls, suspended his campaign amid sexual assault allegations. Xavier Becerra, polling around 3% in March, jumped to 10% within days and went on to finish first.
Those aren't just campaign talking points. They're a diagnosis of what's broken. Voters did send a Latino Democrat to November. But by the logic of the March letter, he was one of the candidates who should have stepped aside. A primary where insiders guess who's viable, and guess wrong, isn't open. It's exclusive.
Statewide race context
California Democrats enjoy an advantage in registered voters of 45% to 25% for Republicans (30% are "no party preference" or other parties). In the June primary, Democratic candidates won about 62% of the vote combined and Republicans about 36%. The two-Republican nightmare didn't happen this time. But about a third of all voters, those who chose Steyer, Porter, Mahan, and the rest of the Democratic field, still saw their candidate eliminated before the larger November electorate gets a say.
History of California Top Two Primary
California ran closed, partisan primaries for over a century. Only party loyalists voted in them. The winners arrived in Sacramento polarized by design.
California voters passed the top-two open primary system in 2010. The goal was right: push candidates toward coalitions, not just their base. And it has made progress. Yet when the system is over-run with candidates, it can have the opposite effect: it produces a fractured majority and two unrepresentative finalists.
Between 2012 and 2024, 15.8% of races in districts and statewide had the top two candidates from the same party. This deprives the voters in the general election, which generally has twice the turnout as the primary, from having a real choice.
California's top-two primary is billed as an open election where the two leading vote-getters advance to a high-turnout November general election. In practice, it's the opposite: a low-turnout general election in June, followed by a higher-turnout runoff in November. The low-turnout primary most often determines who will win.
Top 5 and Ranked Choice Voting are tested and effective
Alaska sends the four highest finishers in its nonpartisan primary on to the general election, all but ensuring that the general includes candidates from both parties and even independents or third-party hopefuls. Then, Alaska uses ranked choice voting in the general election to elect a winner with both broad and deep support. Four choices work for Alaska. California, with ten times the population and far greater political diversity, should offer five.
The Alaska model has proven itself in a state with a real independent streak: Back in 2022, it produced an independent U.S. senator, a conservative governor and a Democratic congresswoman.
Additional Benefits of Top Five and Ranked Choice Voting
Sending the top 5 to the general election would have other benefits. By providing five candidates to the general election and running the general election with the instant runoff feature of ranked choice voting, vote-splitting in the general election no longer causes a candidate to lose. There can still be vote-splitting in the primary, but with five candidates advancing, the odds of a general election with no Democrat or no Republican are infinitesimal.
Top 5 eliminates having low-turnout primaries determine a single viable choice. Not only statewide, but also in a majority-Democrat district or a majority-Republican district, the majority of voters in the general election will no longer just have one choice from their party.
Top 5 gives third parties and independents a chance. For third-party candidates and independent candidates, not only do they have a pathway to the general election, the reluctance of voters to vote for them because of the spoiler effect is eliminated with Ranked Choice Voting. Research also shows RCV encourages more women and candidates of color to run.
Conclusion
Pressuring candidates out of a primary isn't how party leaders should be spending their time. It's basically a return to selecting candidates in smoke-filled rooms, which primaries were designed to reform. No voter in a state of 40 million people should have their choices narrowed by a party letter or a union phone call. On November 3, Californians will choose between two finalists who were each the first choice of fewer than one in three primary voters. Going from two finalists up to five is a real and proven solution. It will make our elections more legitimate and give more Californians a genuine voice.
