California's broken primaries could leave you with no real choice for Governor in November
- Mar 10
- 4 min read
Summary
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This November, California voters could arrive at the polls in November and find a Governor's race without a single Democrat on the ballot. California's open primary system sends only the top two candidates from the June primary to the November general election. As of March 5, an average of polls had two conservative Republicans in the lead: Riverside sheriff Chad Bianco with 16.3 percent, followed by Fox News contributor Steve Hilton with 15.3%.
The Problem
California Democrats enjoy an advantage in registered voters of 45% to 25% for Republicans (30% are "no party preference" or other parties). Democrats also have a wealth of well-known candidates running for Governor to replace termed-out Gavin Newsom.
The number of well-known candidates is the problem: there is no clear front runner, and they are splitting the vast majority Democratic vote so that no one has more than 14%. This is a nightmare for every voter who expects November to mean something. It would leave voters selecting from two Republicans who potentially earned only about 30 percent of the primary vote combined. Most Californians would have had no say in choosing either of them.
The Solution: Top 5 with a ranked choice runoff in November
There is a proven fix: send more candidates to the general election. We could send the top 5 candidates to the general election, instead of just two. To avoid needing a 3rd election for a runoff or risk electing a non-majority winner, the general election can use an instant runoff with ranked ballots (Ranked Choice Voting), as is done in several California cities (San Francisco, Eureka, Redondo Beach and other cities), along with the states of Alaska and Maine. An instant runoff with ranked choice voting would eliminate the vote splitting, ensuring that the winner in November reflects the state's actual political preferences.
History of California Top Two Primary
California ran closed, partisan primaries for over a century. Only party loyalists voted in them. The winners arrived in Sacramento polarized by design, and governing together proved nearly impossible.
California voters passed the top-two open primary system in 2010. The idea was sound: push candidates to build coalitions, not just fire up their base. And it has worked, sometimes. Yet when the system is over-run with candidates, it can have the opposite effect: producing a fractured majority and two unrepresentative finalists.
Since "Top Two" was first used in 2012, California sends only the top two candidates from the open primary to the general election in November. Between 2012 and 2024, 15.8% (173 races out of a total 1,111 races in districts and statewide) had the top two candidates from the same party.
This deprives the voters in the general election, which generally has twice the turnout as the primary, from having a real choice. Republicans shouldn't have to choose from only Democrats and vice-versa.
California's top-two primary is billed as an open election where the two leading vote-getters advance to a high-turnout November general election. In practice, it's the opposite: a low-turnout general election in June, followed by a higher-turnout runoff in November. The low-turnout primary most often determines who will win.
Top 5 and Ranked Choice Voting are tested and effective
Alaska sends the four highest finishers in its nonpartisan primary onto the general election, all but ensuring that the general includes candidates from both parties and even independents or third-party hopefuls. Then, Alaska uses ranked choice voting in the general election to elect a majority winner. Four choices are great, but five would better capture our state's ideological and demographic diversity.
The Alaska model has proven itself in a state with a real independent streak: Back in 2022, it produced an independent U.S. senator, a conservative governor and a Democratic congresswoman. Ranked choice voting, meanwhile, has proven itself in San Francisco, Oakland, Redondo Beach, and many other California cities, offering an "instant runoff" that produces a winner from a crowded field with both wide and deep support. California is ready to rank: 57 of California's 58 counties utilize voting systems capable of conducting ranked choice elections.
Additional Benefits of Top Five and Ranked Choice Voting
Sending the top 5 to the general election would have other benefits. By providing five candidates to the general election and running the general election with the instant runoff feature of ranked choice voting, vote-splitting in the general election no longer causes a candidate to lose. There can still be vote-splitting in the primary, but with five candidates advancing, the odds of a general election with no Democrat or no Republican are infinitesimal.
Top 5 eliminates having low-turnout primaries determine a single viable choice. Not only statewide, but also in a majority-Democrat district or a majority-Republican district, the majority of voters in the general election will no longer just have one choice from their party.
Top 5 gives third parties and independents a chance. For third-party candidates and independent candidates, not only do they have a pathway to the general election, the reluctance of voters to vote for them because of the spoiler effect is eliminated with Ranked Choice Voting. Research also shows RCV encourages more women and candidates of color to run.
Conclusion
Party insiders may yet get most candidates to drop out before the primary. But that's not a solution. It's a retreat. It's basically a return to selecting candidates in smoke-filled rooms, which primaries were designed to reform. California voters don't need party gatekeepers. They need a better system. Going from two finalists up to five is a tested, proven fix. It will make our elections more representative and give more Californians the voice they were promised.
